Context

• The political turmoil in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of U.S. forces and the subsequent rise of the Taliban has sparked global debates on foreign policy and international responsibility.
• While some argue that engaging with the Taliban is a pragmatic move, others warn against the potential risks of legitimising a radical regime.
• Therefore, it is important to discuss the parallels between past and present U.S. actions in Afghanistan and highlights India's shifting stance toward the Taliban regime.

U.S. Involvement and Its Consequences

• The U.S. intervention in Afghanistan, particularly under Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden, played a crucial role in shaping the country's political landscape.
• Trump’s negotiations with the Taliban, which culminated in the 2020 Doha Accords, effectively sidelined the elected Afghan government and paved the way for the Taliban’s return to power.
• This agreement lacked provisions for a sustainable political framework, protections for women and minorities, or guarantees against terrorism.
• The result was a rapid collapse of the Afghan Republic and the establishment of Taliban rule in 2021.
• For Afghans, particularly those in exile, the U.S. withdrawal is seen as a "Great Abandonment," leaving the country in a worse state than before.
• Despite the Taliban’s lack of international recognition, it has consolidated power, enforcing strict laws that have reversed two decades of progress, particularly regarding women's rights.
• The global community’s response has been divided, with the U.S. and Europe largely disengaged, while Russia, China, Pakistan, and Central Asian nations have extended varying degrees of support to the regime.

India’s Changing Approach

• India initially distanced itself from the Taliban following their takeover, closing its embassy in Kabul in 2021.
• However, it has since reopened a ‘technical mission’ and engaged Taliban leaders at official levels.
• Reports suggest that India is considering expanding its presence in Kabul and possibly accepting a Taliban-appointed ambassador in New Delhi.
• This shift marks a significant departure from India’s previous policies of supporting democratic Afghan governments and opposing Taliban rule.
• The Indian government justifies this engagement on the grounds of pragmatism and realpolitik.
• Proponents argue that the Taliban is an undeniable reality in Afghanistan, and engaging with them is necessary for maintaining influence and protecting Indian interests.
• They also claim that diplomatic ties are essential for humanitarian aid and development projects in the country. However, these justifications are met with scepticism.

Challenges and Risks of Engagement

• The Taliban’s Internal Conflicts and Uncertain Future
  • Although the Taliban appears to have a firm grip on power, internal divisions exist, particularly between the Haqqani faction and Kandahari clerics over policies such as girls' education.
  • Some leaders who advocated for moderate reforms have reportedly fled the country, indicating deep-seated tensions within the regime.
  • Additionally, Afghanistan’s economic situation is dire, exacerbated by the loss of foreign aid and worsening relations with Pakistan.
  • Given these uncertainties, assuming the Taliban’s permanence in power may be premature.
• Strategic Risks for India
  • The argument that India must engage with the Taliban to maintain strategic influence is flawed.
  • Unlike its past relationship with the Afghan Republic, where India enjoyed strong security and intelligence cooperation, any strategic alignment with the Taliban remains highly uncertain.
  • Historically, the Taliban has been hostile to Indian interests, targeting Indian diplomatic missions and personnel.
  • Expecting a radical Islamist regime to shift its stance toward India would be a risky assumption.
• Erosion of Goodwill Among Afghan People
  • Perhaps the most significant risk is the loss of goodwill among Afghan citizens, especially those who supported India in the past.
  • India’s refusal to provide visas to Afghans fleeing the Taliban, including those who worked closely with Indian institutions, has led to resentment.
  • Many of these individuals previously contributed to strengthening Indo-Afghan ties, and their exclusion weakens India’s long-term influence.

The Way Forward: The Need for a Balanced Policy

• Support for Afghan Women and Civil Society
  • India should use its influence to advocate for women's rights and provide platforms for Afghan women to voice their concerns.
  • For instance, India could push for the recognition of the Afghan women’s cricket team and other cultural and professional initiatives.
• Engagement with the Afghan Diaspora and Opposition Groups
  • Instead of solely engaging with the Taliban, India should strengthen ties with exiled Afghan leaders and democratic forces.
  • Allowing Afghan opposition figures to hold conferences and discussions in India would ensure that alternative voices are heard.
• Selective Engagement with the Taliban: If India must engage with the Taliban, it should do so cautiously, ensuring that humanitarian aid and development projects do not serve as tools for Taliban propaganda.

Conclusion

• India’s evolving approach to Afghanistan presents both opportunities and risks.
• While realpolitik may dictate some level of engagement with the Taliban, blindly embracing the regime would be detrimental to India's long-term interests.
• A balanced strategy, one that engages with the Taliban without alienating Afghan civil society and opposition groups, would allow India to maintain its influence while upholding its values.
• In the ever-changing geopolitical landscape of Afghanistan, flexibility and foresight are essential to ensuring that India remains a relevant and respected player.