Context

• Scientific progress is a cornerstone of national development, and nations that prioritise research and innovation tend to lead the global economy.
• At a recent National Science Day function, India’s Union Minister for Science and Technology made an ambitious claim: India will overtake the United States in the number of scientific publications by 2029.
• However, a deeper examination of international research metrics, funding allocation, and research quality suggests that this assertion is more aspirational than realistic. 

Comparing Research Output and Investments

• A crucial factor in scientific progress is the level of investment in research and development (R&D).
• The data for six leading research nations illustrate a stark contrast: Israel spends 6.3% of its GDP on R&D, South Korea 4.9%, Japan 3.3%, the United States 3.46%, Germany 3.13%, China 2.4%, and India a mere 0.67%.
• These figures highlight a fundamental problem, India cannot expect to compete with scientific powerhouses while investing significantly less in R&D.
• China’s research dominance is backed by long-term strategic investments in education and scientific infrastructure.
• Since 2006, China has implemented a well-planned Medium-to-Long-Term Plan (MLP) for science and technology development, leading to a research output of 898,949 publications.
• In contrast, the U.S. produced 457,335 publications, while India lagged with 207,390 papers.
• Given these figures, India's claim that it will surpass the U.S. in research output by 2029 appears unfounded.

The Issue of Research Quality

• A more relevant measure of impact is the quality of research, which can be evaluated using citation impact, the Hirsch Index (H-Index), and the Impact Factor (IF) of journals in which papers are published.
• According to Clarivate, a global research analytics firm, India’s citation impact (CNCI) stands at 0.879, compared to 1.12 for China and 1.25 for the U.S. Among 30 ranked countries, India is positioned at a disappointing 28th place.
• A case study in chemistry research provides further insight. An analysis of publications in top-tier chemistry journals between 2017 and 2024 revealed that the U.S., China, and India contribute vastly different numbers of papers.
• For instance, in the prestigious Journal of the American Chemical Society (JACS), the U.S. published 8,503 papers, China 5,521, and India only 305.
• Moreover, a breakdown of Chinese institutions shows that even second-tier Chinese universities produce significantly more research than India’s premier institutions, such as the Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs).
• This disparity underscores India's weak research ecosystem and the need for deeper systemic changes.

The Challenge of Ethics and Research Integrity in Indian Science

• The Proliferation of Predatory Journals
  • These journals often have misleading impact factors, fake editorial boards, and little to no editorial oversight.
  • A 2018 study found that 62% of the world's standalone predatory journals originate in India.
  • This means that a significant portion of Indian research is published in outlets that do not ensure academic rigor, thereby diminishing its global credibility.
  • The most infamous case is the Hyderabad-based Omics Group, which was fined $50 million by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC) in 2019 for deceptive publishing practices.
  • The Omics Group published thousands of articles in questionable journals, falsely claiming that they were peer-reviewed and had high impact factors.
  • It also tricked researchers into paying hefty publication fees, exploiting the pressure on Indian academics to publish in large numbers for career advancement.
  • With 69,000 articles published through this unethical model, Omics significantly polluted global scientific literature, making it difficult to distinguish legitimate research from junk science.
• Plagiarism and Fabrication of Data
  • Plagiarism and data fabrication are other pressing concerns in Indian academia. Many research papers have been found to be either copied from existing work or based on manipulated data.
  • This unethical behaviour is often driven by institutional pressures to meet publication quotas for promotions and funding.
  • Several high-profile cases have exposed these issues. In 2020, a senior professor at Banaras Hindu University (BHU) was accused of plagiarising multiple research papers.
  • Similarly, the Indian Institute of Science Education and Research (IISER) saw a scandal where fabricated data was used in published research.
  • Retractions of Indian research papers due to plagiarism and falsification have been steadily increasing, leading to embarrassment for the country’s scientific community.
• The Weakness of the Peer Review System
  • A robust peer review system is essential for maintaining scientific quality, but in India, this system is often compromised.
  • Many researchers manipulate the peer review process by suggesting their friends and colleagues as reviewers, ensuring favourable reviews.
  • In some cases, journal editors have been found to approve papers without proper scrutiny, particularly in low-quality or predatory journals.
  • A notable example occurred in 2019, when more than 250 Indian research papers were retracted by international publishers due to concerns over manipulated peer reviews and duplicated content.
• The Pressure to Publish: ‘Publish or Perish’ Culture
  • A major reason behind the rise of unethical practices in Indian research is the ‘publish or perish’ culture.
  • Academic promotions, funding grants, and job security in Indian universities are often linked to the number of publications rather than their quality.
  • As a result, researchers are incentivised to publish as many papers as possible, often without regard for originality or impact.
  • In contrast, leading scientific nations like the United States and Germany emphasize research quality over quantity.

The Impact on India's Scientific Reputation and The Path Forward for Indian Science

• The Impact on India's Scientific Reputation
  • The global scientific community is increasingly aware of India’s research integrity crisis.
  • Several major international journals and indexing platforms, such as Clarivate and Scopus, have started scrutinising Indian research more closely.
  • This means that even genuine Indian scientists now face scepticism when submitting their work to prestigious journals.
  • Furthermore, international collaborations are at risk. Many foreign universities and research institutions hesitate to partner with Indian researchers due to concerns about scientific integrity.
  • This affects India's ability to attract global research funding, grants, and talent.
• The Path Forward for Indian Science
  • Increasing R&D Investment: India must aim to raise its R&D spending from the current 0.67% of GDP to at least 2%, aligning itself with other leading nations.
  • Strengthening Higher Education and Research Infrastructure: China’s success stems from its strategic investment in universities and research institutions. India must similarly improve the quality of education, research facilities, and funding for scientists.
  • Enhancing Research Integrity: The prevalence of unethical publishing practices must be curbed through stricter regulations, better peer review mechanisms, and more rigorous academic oversight.
  • Focusing on Innovation and Industry Collaboration: Collaboration between universities, research institutions, and the private sector should be encouraged to translate research into practical applications.

Conclusion

• India's dream of becoming a global leader in science is achievable, but not without significant reform.
• Merely increasing the number of scientific papers will not propel the country forward if the quality remains poor and ethical concerns persist.
• As Einstein aptly put it, ‘Not everything that can be counted counts. Not everything that counts can be counted.’
• If India genuinely seeks to rival scientific giants like the U.S. and China, it must address the fundamental flaws in its research ecosystem, prioritise quality over quantity, and make substantial long-term investments in science and technology.