Context
- The Union Budget plays a crucial role in shaping the trajectory of India's economy, particularly in job creation.
- While short-term measures such as tax relief can stimulate consumer demand, long-term structural reforms are necessary to ensure sustained employment growth and real wage increases.
- The 2024 Budget introduced Employment Linked Incentives (ELI) under the Prime Minister’s five-scheme initiative, aiming to generate over four crore jobs in five years.
- However, to realise the vision of a Viksit Bharat, it is imperative to deliberate on the kind of jobs that need to be created.
Essential Categories of Employment That India Must Focus On
- Climate-Resilient Jobs
- Climate change is an urgent and escalating concern.
- In 2019, India ranked as the seventh most-affected country by climate change, suffering a $159 billion income loss in 2021.
- The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimates that adaptation costs will reach nearly $1 trillion by 2030.
- The impact of climate change on agriculture, labour productivity, and livelihoods necessitates massive investments in rural and urban adaptation strategies.
- AI-Resilient Jobs
- The rapid advancement of Artificial Intelligence (AI) poses a significant challenge to employment, particularly in the IT and business services sectors, which currently account for over 70% of India’s service exports.
- According to McKinsey Global Institute, 50% of automation adoption in India could take place within the next decade.
- Technologies such as metaGPT, AI-powered coding, and chatbot-driven customer service are already replacing human jobs, raising concerns about employment sustainability.
- Aspiration-Centric Jobs
- India’s youth, particularly in rural areas, face a paradox.
- While exposure to digital media and startup culture has broadened their aspirations, their foundational education, particularly in English and technical skills, remains weak.
- Many still rely on government jobs and coaching institutes to secure employment, reflecting a deeper insecurity rooted in their socio-economic backgrounds.
Necessary Measures for India to Focus on Essential Categories of Employment
- A Response to Environmental and Economic Challenges
- To address climate related challenges, job creation must align with sustainability goals.
- The government can introduce large-scale programs that create employment while promoting environmental resilience.
- For example, state-subsidised e-rickshaws could be provided in six lakh villages, generating two million jobs, particularly for women, while improving last-mile mobility.
- Similarly, investments in compressed biogas plants can bridge the gap between the current 82 plants and the ambitious target of 5,000 set in 2018.
- Additionally, accelerating the 500GW non-fossil energy capacity target can generate over one million jobs, particularly in decentralized and rooftop solar, which is seven times more labour-intensive than conventional energy projects.
- These initiatives not only enhance employment but also contribute to India's net-zero goals for 2070.
- Safeguarding Employment in the Age of Automation
- To counteract the effects of AI, India must focus on AI-resilient jobs that prioritise human creativity and physical engagement.
- One avenue is expanding investment in education and healthcare, addressing the shortage of teachers and healthcare professionals across states.
- Similarly, enhancing support for the National Rural Livelihood Mission (NRLM) can empower rural artisans, farmers, and craftsperson by connecting them with global and urban markets.
- These initiatives not only create sustainable employment but also safeguard traditional industries from AI-driven disruptions.
- Meeting the Needs of India’s Ambitious Youth
- Job creation must align with youth aspirations.
- One effective strategy is rapid infrastructure development, such as constructing 70,000 integrated pack-houses to address the existing 95% infrastructure gap in agricultural supply chains, generating over two million jobs.
- Additionally, boosting local manufacturing of agri-inputs and promoting high-value exports can create sustainable off-farm employment opportunities.
- Rebranding rural industries and leveraging digital platforms can also make these jobs more attractive.
- For example, accelerating the National Mission on Edible Oils – Oilseeds could reduce India’s 57% import dependence on edible oils while revitalizing rural oilseed processing.
- This initiative, coupled with greater use of technology and social media for marketing, can turn traditional rural jobs into aspirational career paths.
- Moreover, fostering public-private partnerships in large-scale industries can provide a structured employment ecosystem, addressing the frustrations of youth facing examination leaks and low recruitment vacancies.
Conclusion
- While tax relief and short-term policies can provide temporary economic boosts, India needs long-term structural reforms to sustain employment and wage growth.
- The government must focus on climate-resilient jobs that support sustainability, AI-resilient jobs that protect human creativity, and aspiration-centric jobs that align with youth ambitions.
- By strategically investing in these areas, India can not only mitigate the risks of climate change and automation but also unlock the full potential of its workforce, paving the way for a truly developed Viksit Bharat.