Context:

• At the 2025 Tianjin SCO Summit, a striking photo of Putin, Modi, and Xi engaged in an animated discussion signalled increasing alignment among major Asian powers — a dynamic often seen in G-7 meetings.
• A month later, at the Busan “G2” summit, a contrasting image of a visibly uneasy U.S. President Donald Trump beside a calm Xi Jinping further highlighted the shifting global balance toward Asia.
• Acknowledging this shift, the U.S. Secretary of State told the Senate that the 21st century will be shaped in Asia.
• Yet, U.S. priorities—articulated by Ambassador Sergio Gor—focused on pulling India closer to Washington and discouraging its cheap Russian oil imports.
• Prime Minister Modi later underscored that India’s decisions and future trajectory cannot be dictated by external powers.
• This article highlights India’s evolving foreign policy landscape at a time of major geopolitical shifts toward Asia.

A Critical Turning Point in India’s Foreign Policy

• India is at a foreign policy crossroads as it approaches major economic power status.
• At the same time, U.S. actions — weakening multilateralism and narrowing India’s strategic space — coincide with India’s improving ties with China and strengthened relations with Russia.
• Balancing China and Russia: A Non-Binary Choice
  • India should not fall into the U.S.-framed binary of choosing either Washington or Beijing.
  • With China, India should adopt a “trust but verify” approach as border negotiations in Ladakh progress, potentially influencing broader issues such as Kashmir and future investments.
  • Russia remains a long-standing, dependable partner, demonstrated recently through the role of the S-400 system in “Operation Sindoor.”
  • Western arguments that India must tilt fully toward the U.S. or China ignore India’s multi-vector interests.
• India’s Strategic Pivot Toward Asia
  • The emerging path for India lies in deeper engagement with Asia, whose combined market will soon surpass that of the U.S.
  • Asian integration is evolving on the basis of shared value-chain interests, not colonial legacies or fixed global rules.
  • Many regional powers seek closer ties with India due to its technological strength and economic weight capable of balancing China.
• Asia’s Centrality in Global Power
  • Asia, home to two-thirds of global population and wealth, is returning to the world’s centre stage.
  • Key regional groupings — BRICS, SCO, and ASEAN — will increasingly overlap and interlink.
  • India should also reconsider joining the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), where trade arrangements can be negotiated outside WTO constraints, including a pragmatic working arrangement with China to diversify markets away from the U.S.

India’s Shift Toward Hard Strategic Choices

• India has shed earlier hesitation and now behaves like an emerging power capable of making tough decisions.
• Growing U.S. pressure has also contributed to forming a new national consensus on strategic assertiveness.
• Redefining Strategic Autonomy for a Unique Dual Agenda
  • India’s strategic autonomy must reflect its distinctive position —
    • fastest-growing major economy
    • long-term demographic advantage
    • largest labour force; yet the highest number of poor.
  • India’s core sustainable development interests align with the Global South.
  • Therefore, partnerships must be shaped carefully so India strengthens value chains without being pulled into frameworks that dilute its priorities.
• New Global Rules Driven by Technology, Not Traditional Diplomacy
  • The future will not resemble the past where Europe dominated through military and economic leverage.
  • Technological interdependence now determines power — economic, political, and military.
  • Innovation capacity is becoming the key driver of influence.
  • For India, certain areas are non-negotiable:
    • protection of national data
    • domestic technological innovation
    • local defence manufacturing
    • inclusive growth
  • These must guide foreign, security, and technology policies.
• Cyber Warfare and Tech-Led Defence Must Take Centre Stage
  • Cyber warfare should become the backbone of India’s national security — not traditional theatre commands — because land-based threats have changed.

Geopolitical Shifts Influencing India’s Security Outlook

• China has scaled back from the CPEC; Pakistan is turning to expensive ADB loans.
• The U.S. has expanded its influence in Bangladesh and has a mutual defence pact with Saudi Arabia.
• The U.S. is eyeing Afghanistan’s Bagram base again.
• India secured a six-month U.S. sanctions waiver for Chabahar Port, maintaining strategic access to Iran, Afghanistan, Central Asia and Russia.

Need for Defence Reorientation

• The changing neighbourhood and technological landscape require a national debate on reforming defence allocations:
  • Consider reducing army size
  • Limit large, imported platforms
  • Invest heavily in domestic AI, missiles, drones, air defence, and space technologies
• These sectors can drive both security strength and broader economic innovation.

India’s AI Sovereignty: The Next Big Imperative

• India must shape its own AI future to achieve sustained double-digit, inclusive growth.
• A Bernstein report warns that India’s ₹10,372-crore AI Mission risks becoming irrelevant globally, with U.S. companies poised to dominate the field.
• A Parliamentary Committee has stressed the urgent need for indigenous foundational AI research to secure sovereign capability.
• Experts argue that India must increase funding at least twenty-fold to build national AI collaboration networks, high-end computing infrastructure, proprietary models, and a strong talent ecosystem — all coordinated at the highest level.
• Achieving AI sovereignty is now essential for India to become a true global power by 2047.