In News:

• Iraq’s political crisis took a violent turn recently when at least 24 people were killed and about 200 injured in clashes between the supporters of influential Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr and the country’s security personnel.
• After Mr. Sadr announced that he was quitting politics amid a political deadlock, his supporters stormed the Republican Palace of the government and fought the security personnel.

What’s in today’s article:

• Political crisis in Iraq – Background, constitutional provision on election in Iraq, triggering of crisis etc.

Political crisis in Iraq

Background:

• The October 2021 elections to the Council of Representatives were considered to be a new beginning and opportunity for Iraq.
• The Sadrist Movement won 73 out of the 329 seats available, but failed to secure absolute majority.
• Iraq’s post-war tradition was to form national consensus governments. But Mr. Sadr wanted to form a majority government led by his bloc.
• He entered into a tripartite coalition, called “Save the Homeland”, with Sunni and Kurdish parties. Together, they had absolute majority in the House.
• However, the Shia Coordination Framework, the coalition of Iran-backed Shia parties, opposed Mr. Sadr resulting into a bitter power struggle.

Constitutional provision on election of President & PM of Iraq

• The Constitution of Iraq requires a new Parliament to pick a President first, who then should ask the largest parliamentary bloc to nominate someone for the post of Prime Minister.
• The PM nominee should then form a government and get parliamentary approval.
• For the Presidential election to take place, two-thirds of the representatives should be present in the House.

Triggering of crisis

• The subsequent Presidential votes in Iraq failed to go through as the quorum was not met as different blocs boycotted parliament sessions.
  • Therefore, without a new President, a new government could not be formed.
• In protest against the rival parties’ continued boycott of Parliament, Mr. Sadr, in June 2022, asked all the 73 legislators of the Sadrist Movement to resign.
• According to Iraq’s electoral laws, if a parliamentary seat becomes vacant, it will be filled by the candidate who receives the second-highest number of votes in their electoral district.
• The Coordination Framework took advantage of this resignation and became the largest bloc. They went ahead with plans to form their government.
• Sadr, now out of Parliament, called for protests in the streets.

What do Sadrists want?

• They demand the dissolution of Parliament, early elections and Constitutional amendments to clear blockades that stand in the way of Mr. Sadr forming a majority government.
• Sadr asked his supporters to continue the sit-in protests until new elections are held. The Shia Coordination Framework opponents have staged counter-protests.

What lies ahead?

• The political paralysis in Iraq could have two possible outcomes.
• Firstly, as per the wishes of Mr. Sadr and his loyal followers, Parliament could be dissolved, and early elections could be called.
• The second possibility is the Shia Coordination Framework electing a new President and getting their choice, Mohammed al-Sudani, elected as the next PM of Iraq.
  • This possibility, however, runs the risk of violence. Sadrists might have resigned from Parliament, but they remain a formidable street force.
• The current crisis also marks a break from Iraq’s post-war Shia consensus.
  • The dominant political contradiction in the elections held immediately after the U.S. invasion was between Shia and Sunni parties.
  • Now the power struggle is between two Shia factions, one backed by Iran and the other relatively autonomous led by Mr. Sadr.