Context

• Niccolò Machiavelli’s view that politics is governed by power struggles and survival remains relevant today.
• The traditional international order, shaped by events like the Peace of Westphalia and the Congress of Vienna, is crumbling.
• As older norms fade, new tools of dominance, rooted in technological innovation, are rising.
• The focus has shifted from diplomacy to digital warfare, reshaping both global politics and military strategy.

The Illusion of Post-War Peace

• The end of World War II in 1945, followed by the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, led many to believe in the arrival of a long-lasting peace enforced by American military might.
• Concepts like a rules-based international order emerged. Yet, this peace proved to be an illusion.
• From Korea to Vietnam and North Africa, conflicts persisted, revealing that global tensions had not subsided but transformed.
• The Cold War’s end in 1989 did not usher in a peaceful era. Instead, new conflicts emerged, challenging earlier assumptions.
• A major turning point was Operation Desert Storm in 1991, which marked the start of modern high-tech warfare.
• Precision-guided missiles, satellite intelligence, and three-dimensional strikes redefined battle doctrine.
• This conflict began shifting war from manpower-heavy strategies to ones emphasising technology and speed.

9/11, the Era of Pretextual Warfare and The Rise of Digitised and Autonomous Warfare

• 9/11 and The Era of Pretextual Warfare
  • September 11, 2001, was another defining moment. While some mark 1989 as the start of a new world order, others see 9/11 as the true catalyst.
  • The attacks allowed the U.S. and its allies to launch military interventions under the banner of combating terrorism.
  • However, this did not clarify whether the fundamentals of warfare were changing.
  • It took time to realise that the traditional rules of conflict were eroding. Military invasions began to rely more on perception and less on legality, and the justifications for war became increasingly ideological.
  • The seeds of algorithmic warfare had been planted, though their consequences were not yet visible.
• The Rise of Digitised and Autonomous Warfare
  • Recent conflicts, particularly the Russia-Ukraine war since 2022 and the India-Pakistan clash in May 2025, have brought these changes into sharp focus.
  • Warfare today is driven by automation, AI, and network-centric strategies.
  • Drones, equipped with image recognition and loitering munitions, now play a central role in combat operations.
  • The 2025 India-Pakistan conflict showcased this shift. Both sides used fixed-wing drones, loitering munitions, and precision-guided bombs.
  • Fighter jets and missiles, like India’s BrahMos and Pakistan’s PL-15s, were deployed in tandem with advanced Turkish drones.
  • These engagements revealed a battlefield dominated by AI and autonomous systems, where speed, coordination, and digital integration matter more than physical presence.
  • The modern battlefield is now multi-domain, air, land, cyber, and space.
  • Cyberattacks, AI-driven targeting, and hypersonic weapons are shaping a new generation of warfare.
  • Traditional combat strategies, based on physical superiority, are fast becoming obsolete.

India’s Strategic Imperative

• India must reassess its defence posture in this changing landscape.
• Despite investments in platforms like the BrahMos and Rafale jets, the pace of indigenous technological development lags behind.
• China, by contrast, has developed fifth-generation and is preparing sixth-generation fighter aircraft. It also leads in drone warfare and cyber capabilities.
• India’s continued reliance on legacy systems and external procurements may limit its agility.
• The May 2025 conflict underscores the need for rapid modernisation, particularly in autonomous systems, drones, AI, and cyber defence.
• The advent of high-altitude, long-endurance UAVs has redefined surveillance and targeting, making them essential assets in any modern military engagement.
• Furthermore, India must diversify its military hardware to be better prepared for a two-front conflict with Pakistan and China.

Conclusion

• The evolution of conflict from conventional warfare to technologically driven, digital battlespaces signals the return of Machiavellian realism in new form, where power is defined not by land or numbers, but by information and innovation.
• The post-WWII illusion of peace has been shattered, and the nature of war has fundamentally changed.
• The future of warfare will be determined by those who master digital ecosystems, AI, and autonomous combat capabilities.