The Vision India@2047: India to become $30-trillion economy by...

The Vision India@2047: India to become $30-trillion economy by 2047

Oct. 30, 2023

Why in News?

India is estimated to be a $30 trillion developed economy by 2047, preliminary results from the Centre's vision document - The Vision India@2047,which is being prepared by Niti Aayog have shown.
The document is likely to be released by the Indian PM after going through some fine-tuning before the draft vision document is ready by December.

What’s in Today’s Article?

India’s Vision and Progress Towards 2047:

In his 2021 Independence Day speech, the Indian PM paid homage to the freedom fighters and shared his vision for Amrit Kaal and 2047, when the country would celebrate 100 years of independence.
He had given a call to make India a developed nation by 2047 - Viksit Bharat@2047 - and had urged CMs of states to work towards it with a Team India approach.
Expounding on the PM’s vision, the Union Finance Minister (in her Budget 2022-2023 speech) shared that during the Amrit Kaal (India at 75 to India at 100), the government aims to -
- Complement the macro-economic level growth focus with a micro-economic level all-inclusive welfare focus.
- Promote digital economy and fintech, technology-enabled development, energy transition, and climate action.
- Rely on a virtuous cycle starting from private investment with public capital investment helping to crowd-in private investment.
Elaborating more on the goals for 2047, the Union Budget 2023-2024 re-emphasised that Jan Bhagidari through Sabka Saath, Sabka Prayas is essential and delineated the Saptarishi principles:
- Inclusive Development;
- Reaching the Last Mile;
- Infrastructure and Investment;
- Unleashing the Potential;
- Green Growth;
- Youth Power;
- Financial Sector.

What is the Current State of the Indian Economy?

By 2022, the size of Indian GDP had already become larger than the GDP of the UK and also France.
India is currently estimated to be the fifth largest economy with a GDP of $3.7 trillion.
Several estimates show that India's GDP is expected to overtake Japan and Germany by 2030. According to the Ratings agency S&P, India's nominal GDP will rise from $3.4 trillion in 2022 to $7.3 trillion by 2030.
This rapid pace of economic expansion would result in the size of the Indian GDP, making India the second largest economy in the Asia-Pacific region.

What will be Included in the Vision India@2047?

The exercise to draw up the Vision India@2047 document was started in (December) 2021.
- 10 groups of secretaries across sectors such as rural and agriculture, infrastructure, social vision, welfare, technology, governance, security, foreign affairs, etc., were constituted for the purpose.
The document will outline the structural changes and reforms needed to reach the objective of becoming a 30-trillion dollars developed economy by 2047 with a per-capita income of $18,000-20,000.
It will include government process re-engineering, reforms and cut down on duplication of work by different ministries and departments.
It is also expected to have details about the country's global engagement on trade, investment, technology, capital, research and development entities.
The document is also expected to outline which Indian companies would be global leaders and also the strategy for creating an ecosystem needed to achieve the goal.
It will also have details about creating human capital to achieve the vision, how to leverage the country's market size and how to address regional disparities.
The vision document will also detail the roadmap where India will be in 2030 and in 2047.

Preliminary Results from the Vision India@2047:

The economy will need to post an annual average economic growth of 9.2% between 2030-2040, 8.8% between 2040-2047 and 9% between 2030 to 2047.
The preliminary results predict that India’s exports will be valued at $8.67 trillion in 2047 while its imports will be valued at $12.12 trillion.
India’s apex policy think tank (Niti Aayog) also predicts India’s average life expectancy to jump to 71.8 from 67.2 in 2021 and its literacy rate to 89.8% from 77.8% in 2021.

Challenges Ahead in Implementing the Vision India@2047:

Aligning states’ vision documents with the national vision document:
- NITI Aayog is helping Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh prepare their vision documents.
- While other states like UP, Tamil Nadu, Goa, and Uttarakhand are preparing their documents independently.
Middle-income trap:
- The strategy will have measures to ensure that the economy does not fall into the "middle-income trap".
- The middle-income trap refers to a situation whereby a middle-income country is failing to transition to a high-income economy due to rising costs and declining competitiveness. (World Bank)