Context:

• Recently, Chinese Premier Li Qiang launched construction of a massive hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo River in Tibet, close to the Indian border.
• The Yarlung Tsangpo project's scale, lack of transparency, ecological threats, and strategic ramifications have raised serious concerns for India, especially as no prior consultation was conducted with lower riparian states like India and Bangladesh.

Project Overview and Strategic Location:

• Project cost and scale:
  • Estimated at 1.2 trillion yuan (US$167.8 billion), it involves five cascade hydropower plants in Medog County, approximately 30 km from India's Arunachal Pradesh border.
  • Expected annual generation will be 300 billion kWh, more than thrice the designed capacity (88.2 billion kWh) of the Three Gorges Dam in China, currently the largest in the world.
• Engineering features:
  • It would involve drilling 4-6 tunnels of 20 km each, diverting up to 50% of the river’s flow.
  • It is located in a high seismic zone (Zone V) – Eastern Himalayan Syntaxis.

Environmental and Hydrological Concerns:

• Disruption of Brahmaputra flow:
  • The project would alter natural hydrology and seasonal flow, especially in the lean season.
  • It will impact aquatic biodiversity, fisheries, sediment load, and ecosystem services.
  • The construction of five massive hydropower plants in cascade is likely to involve reservoir-like structures, even though it is claimed to be a run-of-the-river project.
• Flood risk: Sudden or unannounced water release during heavy rainfall or earthquakes could lead to catastrophic downstream flooding.
• Seismic vulnerability:
  • Project area prone to earthquakes due to Himalayan Frontal Thrust and Medog Fault.
  • Past Chinese engineering failures (e.g., Neelum-Jhelum in PoK) raise safety concerns.

Diplomatic and Legal Dimensions:

• Lack of riparian cooperation:
  • China has consistently withheld data and transparency.
  • Past behavior on the Mekong River affected Laos, Cambodia, Vietnam, setting a worrying precedent.
  • No operationalization of three MoUs signed with India in 2013.
• International water laws:
  • Neither India nor China are signatories to the UN Convention (1997) on international watercourses.
  • However, principles like “equitable utilization” and “no significant harm” are part of customary international law.
• Geopolitical double standards:
  • China likely would not tolerate similar behavior from upstream states.
  • India’s quiet diplomacy is seen as ineffective; stronger public and diplomatic messaging is needed.

Strategic and Policy Recommendations for India:

• Diplomatic pushback:
  • Demand full project disclosure, seismic safety reports, and environmental impact assessments.
  • Seek project suspension until legitimate Indian concerns are addressed.
• Domestic response:
  • Build flood moderation infrastructure in Arunachal and Assam.
  • Use remote sensing and geospatial tools for independent hydrological assessments.
  • Reduce dependence on China for hydrological data.
• Internationalizing the issue:
  • Promote NGO engagement and international discourse.
  • Elevate the issue in bilateral talks and in multilateral platforms to signal assertiveness.

Conclusion:

• The Yarlung Tsangpo project is not just an ecological and hydrological threat but a strategic challenge.
• India must shift from passive diplomacy to proactive engagement, emphasizing transboundary water governance, sovereign rights, and ecological security.
• The time has come for India to build pressure through diplomatic, technical, and international legal instruments while enhancing domestic preparedness.