Trump 2.0 and the New Matrix of U.S.-India Defence Ties
Feb. 28, 2025

Context

  • Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s official visit to the United States in February, 2025, marked a significant step in enhancing the U.S.-India bilateral defence engagement.
  • The visit resulted in agreements aimed at strengthening military cooperation, including defence acquisitions and co-production initiatives.
  • However, while these developments indicate progress, they also highlight existing challenges in defence procurement, regulatory alignment, and technological integration.

Notable Achievements of PM Modi’s Visit

  • Strengthening Defence Acquisitions
    • One of the notable achievements of the visit was the agreement to expand India's defence acquisitions and co-production efforts.
    • The joint statement emphasised interoperability, particularly through India's planned purchase and co-production of the ‘Javelin’ Anti-Tank Guided Missile (ATGM) and ‘Stryker’ Infantry Combat Vehicles (ICVs).
    • These initiatives are expected to boost domestic manufacturing and integrate India into the global supply chain for these systems.
    • Additionally, India is set to acquire six more P-8I maritime patrol aircraft to enhance the Indian Navy’s Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA).
  • 10 Year Framework for US-India Defence Partnership
    • A new 10-year framework for the U.S.-India Major Defence Partnership will further consolidate military cooperation in advanced defence technologies.
    • In particular, collaborations in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) and autonomous systems received a significant push.
    • Agreements between companies such as Anduril Industries and the Mahindra Group, as well as the co-development of Active Towed Array Systems (ATAS) by L3Harris and Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL), highlight the deepening defence industrial ties between the two nations.
  • Greater Cooperation in Undersea Operations, Space Defence
    • The newly announced Autonomous Systems Industry Alliance (ASIA) is set to promote greater cooperation in undersea systems, fifth-generation fighter aircraft, space defence, and anti-tank missile technology.
    • A review of regulatory frameworks related to arms transfers and the initiation of a Reciprocal Defence Procurement (RDP) agreement will ensure better synergy in defence trade and maintenance.
    • These developments reflect a growing commitment to strategic collaboration between India and the U.S.

Challenges in US-India Defence Collaboration

  • Delayed Technology Transfers and Engine Procurement Issues
    • One of the most pressing issues in U.S.-India defence collaboration is the delay in the supply and transfer of technology (ToT) for General Electric’s fighter jet engines.
    • The joint statement following Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit made no mention of the urgent delivery of GE Aerospace’s F-404 GE-IN-20 engines, which are crucial for the Tejas-Mark 1A fighter aircraft.
    • These engines are essential for the operational readiness of India’s indigenous fighter jets, yet delays in their procurement pose a serious setback for the Indian Air Force (IAF).
  • Challenges in Fighter Aircraft Procurement and Integration
    • The potential integration of the F-35 Lightning II fighter aircraft into the IAF presents a significant logistical and operational challenge.
    • The Indian Air Force already operates a highly diverse fleet, including Russian-origin Su-30MKIs, MiG-29s, French Rafales, British Jaguars, and the indigenous Tejas jets.
    • Adding the F-35 to this mix would require extensive adjustments in terms of training, maintenance, infrastructure, and weapons compatibility.
    • Moreover, the IAF's Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) project, which aimed to procure 114 multirole fighters, has faced repeated delays since its initiation in 2000.
    • The project has seen several changes, from an initial selection of the Dassault Rafale in 2012 to later negotiations failing due to disagreements over technology transfer and costs.
  • Regulatory and Bureaucratic Hurdles in Defence Trade
    • While India and the U.S. have agreed to review their regulatory frameworks for arms transfers, fundamental differences remain in defence procurement processes.
    • The U.S. follows strict export control laws, such as the International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR), which can restrict India’s access to cutting-edge technology.
    • Even when deals are approved, they often come with conditions that limit India’s ability to indigenously manufacture or modify the systems.
    • Although discussions are underway to establish an RDP agreement, which would facilitate mutual supply of defence goods and services, regulatory misalignments between India’s Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) and U.S. acquisition mechanisms continue to slow progress.
    • The process of acquiring American defence equipment often involves lengthy approvals from both the U.S. Congress and India’s Ministry of Defence.
    • Bureaucratic delays on both sides have slowed down key defence projects, such as the MH-60R Seahawk helicopters and armed Predator drones.
  • Dependence on Foreign Defence Supplies and Strategic Autonomy Concerns
    • While India has been expanding its partnerships with multiple nations, including Russia, France, Israel, and the U.S., its reliance on foreign defence imports raises concerns about strategic autonomy.
    • Unlike France, which agreed to provide some level of technology transfer for the Rafale deal, the U.S. has historically been reluctant to share critical defence technology with India.
    • The U.S. tends to impose End-User Monitoring (EUM) agreements, which require on-site inspections of military equipment even after sale. This could compromise India’s operational secrecy.
    • Acquiring U.S. systems like the F-35 or advanced missile defence systems may limit India’s ability to maintain a truly non-aligned defence policy, as it would increase dependence on American military infrastructure and intelligence-sharing agreements.
  • Geopolitical Sensitivities and Russia’s Role in India’s Defence Strategy
    • India’s long-standing defence relationship with Russia remains a factor that complicates deeper collaboration with the U.S.
    • For decades, Russia has been India’s primary supplier of military hardware, including S-400 missile defence systems, Su-30MKI fighters, and nuclear submarines.
    • The U.S. has imposed sanctions on Russia under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which penalises countries that engage in defence deals with Moscow.
    • While India has so far managed to secure a waiver for its S-400 missile purchase, future Russian defence deals could trigger U.S. restrictions.
    • Given Russia’s continued conflict with Ukraine and U.S. pressure on countries to reduce military cooperation with Moscow, India faces a delicate balancing act in maintaining strong ties with both Russia and the U.S.

Implications of a U.S. Defence Deal

  • A potential deal with the U.S. for the F-35 would be a major strategic move but comes with significant challenges.
  • Unlike the Rafale deal, which included advanced weapon systems such as the Scalp air-to-ground cruise missile and the Meteor air-to-air missile, the F-35 purchase would likely lack technology transfer or co-production benefits.
  • Additionally, the cost of maintaining a diverse fleet, including the Rafale, Tejas, and potentially the F-35, would impose a heavy logistical and financial burden on the IAF.
  • Furthermore, acquiring the F-35 could subject India to U.S. restrictions on its deployment and operations.
  • The stringent on-site inspection regime that accompanies U.S. defence sales could limit India's strategic autonomy in using the aircraft.
  • These concerns highlight the complexities involved in making a long-term commitment to U.S. defence technology.

Conclusion

  • The recent agreements between India and the U.S. demonstrate the deepening of their strategic and defence partnership.
  • Increased interoperability, co-production, and regulatory alignment signal progress in bilateral defence ties.
  • However, unresolved challenges, including delays in engine deliveries for the Tejas, integration difficulties with the F-35, and complications surrounding the MMRCA project, indicate that there is still work to be done.
  • While the Modi-Trump engagement has laid a foundation for stronger defence cooperation, both nations must address these critical gaps to ensure that the partnership yields meaningful and sustainable results.

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