Context

• Donald Trump’s return to the presidency has sparked discussions about the beginning of a new Trumpian era, characterised by his unorthodox leadership and disruptive tendencies.
• This era is expected to significantly impact the global legal and institutional frameworks, potentially redefining the United States’ complex relationship with international law.
• As a leading global power, the U.S. has historically balanced its role as a key architect of international law with a pattern of exceptionalism that often undermines the same systems it helped create.
• Under Trump’s leadership, this dichotomy reached unprecedented levels, and his second term could exacerbate these challenges further.

A Complicated Relationship of the U.S. and International Law

• The United States has played a pivotal role in establishing and shaping international legal frameworks to align with its interests.
• Its influence spans critical areas such as climate change, space law, human rights, and trade.
• However, this leadership has been accompanied by a policy of exceptionalism, where the U.S. often views itself as distinct and exempt from the rules binding other nations.
• Critics argue that this undermines the credibility and efficacy of international law, especially when the U.S. disregards the very norms it expects others to follow.

Features of Trump’s First Term

• A Sovereigntist Approach
  • Donald Trump’s first term marked a dramatic shift in the U.S.’s approach to international law.
  • Elected on an America First platform, Trump adopted what scholars describe as a sovereigntist view, perceiving multilateral treaties as constraints on U.S. sovereignty.
  • This manifested in a preference for bilateral agreements and scepticism towards multilateralism, an approach more typical of emerging powers than an established superpower.
• Weakening of Multilateral Organisations
  • During his first term, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, reneged on nuclear agreements with Russia and Iran, and undermined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) by blocking appointments to its Appellate Body.
  • These actions weakened multilateral institutions and signalled a retreat from global cooperation.
  • Trump also withdrew the U.S. from international bodies like UNESCO, attempted to leave the World Health Organisation (WHO), and dismantled agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

Prospects for a Second Trump Term

• Unilateralism Over Multilateralism
  • Central to Trump’s policy outlook is his disdain for multilateral frameworks, which he perceives as constraints on American sovereignty.
  • This view drives his preference for bilateral agreements that allow the U.S. to negotiate from a position of strength, often disregarding broader international consensus.
  • For instance, Trump’s first term saw the U.S. withdraw from landmark agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
  • These actions not only disrupted global efforts to address climate change and trade but also signalled a retreat from U.S. leadership in multilateral settings.
• Protectionism and Economic Nationalism
  • Trump’s economic policies reflect a clear preference for protectionism, with tariffs and trade restrictions forming the backbone of his strategy.
  • During his first term, Trump imposed tariffs on allied nations such as Canada and Mexico, citing unfair trade practices.
  • He also initiated trade wars with China, disrupting global supply chains and straining economic relations.
  • In his second term, Trump has proposed even more aggressive measures, including a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, even if it violates WTO rules.
  • Such policies could exacerbate tensions within the global trading system, further undermining the already fragile World Trade Organisation.
• Territorial Ambitions and Geopolitical Risks
  • Trump’s rhetoric surrounding territorial acquisitions, such as annexing Greenland or the Panama Canal, underscores a return to a revisionist approach reminiscent of 19th-century great-power politics.
  • While such statements may not translate into immediate action, they challenge the post-World War II international consensus that prohibits territorial conquest and prioritises self-determination.
  • These ambitions also set a dangerous precedent for other revisionist states, particularly China and Russia.
• Erosion of Norms and Institutions
  • Trump’s second term could further erode the normative authority of international institutions.
  • His administration’s deliberate undermining of the WTO’s Appellate Body during his first term rendered it effectively non-functional, and a renewed Trump presidency would likely continue such tactics.
  • Without a functioning dispute resolution mechanism, global trade could devolve into a series of unilateral actions and retaliatory measures, eroding trust and predictability in international commerce.
  • Additionally, Trump’s antagonism toward global governance mechanisms could weaken international cooperation on pressing issues such as climate change, public health, and human rights.

The Path Forward to Countering these Challenges

• While Trump’s first term faced resistance from domestic institutions and participants in the transnational legal process, his renewed control over the Senate and House could enable him to implement his policies more effectively in a second term.
• In this scenario, other nations must collaborate to preserve the international legal order.
• Strengthening multilateral institutions, developing global solidarity, and resisting the erosion of established norms will be essential to counterbalance the unilateral tendencies of a Trump administration.

Conclusion

• Donald Trump’s second term promises to deepen the challenges facing the international legal order.
• His leadership style, marked by unilateralism and exceptionalism, risks undermining multilateral institutions and destabilizing global norms.
• To mitigate these effects, the international community must remain vigilant and proactive, ensuring that the principles of international law continue to guide global governance.
• Only through collective effort can the integrity of the international legal system be preserved in the face of such disruptions.