Context

• The current ceasefire between Israel and Hamas stands on uncertain and unstable ground, shaped by unresolved humanitarian obligations, rising geopolitical pressure, and competing strategic interests.
• While the agreement aims to de-escalate hostilities following the October 7, 2023 attacks, deep mistrust and reluctant compliance threaten to unravel progress.
• The situation highlights a striking paradox: Israel, though militarily dominant, is politically constrained, while Hamas, despite military weakness, retains ideological and strategic freedom.
• Amid this ongoing situation, it is important to examine the evolving ceasefire, the role of U.S. diplomacy, and the factors that make lasting peace elusive.

Body Returns and the Ceasefire’s First Test

• A major stipulation of the ceasefire is the return of Israelis’ bodies held by Hamas in Gaza.
• As of now, 13 bodies remain unreturned, with Hamas either unable or unwilling to locate them, raising suspicions this delay may be strategic. 
• Egypt and the International Committee of the Red Cross have been mediating, reflecting the sensitivity and international scrutiny around this phase.
• The return of these bodies is not just humanitarian; it is a precondition for the next stage, Hamas’s disarmament, which is poised to be the real test of the ceasefire.

Escalation amid Negotiation, U.S. Involvement and Strategic Pressure

• Escalation amid Negotiation
  • Despite the ceasefire, hostilities have persisted.
  • Recent incidents, such as the killing of an Israeli soldier by Hamas in northern Gaza and subsequent Israeli retaliation resulting in more than 100 Palestinian deaths in a day, underscore the fragility of the agreement. 
  • Qatar’s support for Israel, paired with condemnation of Hamas’s actions, signals a shifting regional stance and highlights the challenge of unity among ceasefire guarantors.
• U.S. Involvement and Strategic Pressure
  • A distinctive feature of the current scenario is the unusually direct American involvement.
  • President Trump’s decision to send 200 military personnel, deploy drones for surveillance, and initiate high-level visits to Jerusalem demonstrates U.S. intent to enforce the ceasefire personally.
  • This level of intervention is intended as a show of support and a lever to exert pressure on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
  • The assertive U.S. presence and the threat to withdraw support if Israel pursues West Bank annexation have rattled the Israeli government, especially right-wing factions opposed to external constraints.

Limited Influence on Hamas

• While the U.S. exercises considerable influence over Israel, it has less leverage over Hamas.
• Hamas, having weathered American threats, is emboldened by its ability to extract political concessions and delay major steps like hostage releases for maximum advantage.
• Although Qatar and Turkey have pushed Hamas towards compliance, it is uncertain how long Hamas will heed their influence.

The Paradox of Power Dynamics and Implications for Israeli and Regional Politics

• The Paradox of Power Dynamics
  • This situation illustrates a paradox: Israel, despite its military dominance, finds itself politically constrained by American demands, whereas Hamas, though militarily inferior, enjoys ideological independence and greater negotiating latitude. 
  • Trump’s forceful diplomatic style may provide a short-term halt to violence but risks sowing seeds of lasting regional resentment.
• Implications for Israeli and Regional Politics
  • For Netanyahu, U.S. involvement is both beneficial and humiliating, shifting responsibility for peace onto America while exposing the extent to which Israeli sovereignty is subject to U.S. politics.
  • As U.S. elections approach, Israel’s dependency on its most powerful ally becomes increasingly pronounced.
  • Hamas and regional backers are capitalising on the perception that Israel is acting under external duress, which may enhance Hamas’s standing regardless of military setbacks.

The Path Forward: Beyond Deal Diplomacy

• President Trump’s ceasefire deal may achieve a temporary reduction in violence, but authentic peace remains elusive.
• The asymmetry of power and the transactional approach dominated by current American diplomacy are unlikely to nurture lasting stability.
• Sustainable peace in Gaza will require restraint, reconciliation, and genuine regional cooperation, elements extending beyond any leader’s deal-making prowess.
• The risk is that, once the immediate crisis passes and international attention fades, underlying tensions will persist and the region will remain primed for renewed conflict.