Context:

• The article explores how US President Donald Trump's foreign policy interventions—ranging from military action in Iran to his controversial stance on NATO (questioning its relevance)—are reshaping geopolitical dynamics across Eurasia.
• It underscores the emergence of Germany as a strategic leader in Europe, the shifting power structures in the Middle East, and the reverberations of US disengagement in the Indo-Pacific.
• These transformations signal the birth of a new geopolitical order with major implications for global and regional actors, including India.

NATO in Flux - Trump and Transatlantic Tensions:

• NATO under pressure: The 32-member NATO summit (in The Hague) is marked by growing uncertainty about the alliance’s future.
• Trump’s challenge: His repeated questioning of NATO’s relevance and demands for increased European defence spending are pushing Europe to reassess its security dependencies.
• Shift in leadership focus: With US reliability under question, Germany is emerging as a new strategic anchor within Europe. 

Germany’s Strategic Reorientation - From Reluctance to Leadership:

• Historical backdrop: From a constrained post-WWII role to a reunified “economic giant, geopolitical dwarf.”
• Turning point (2022):
  • Chancellor (former) Olaf Scholz’s declaration of a Zeitenwende — a historic turning point — marked the beginning of Germany’s strategic reorientation.
  • Russia’s Ukraine invasion compelled Germany to allocate €100 billion to modernise the Bundeswehr (German armed forces) and embrace NATO’s 2% GDP defence spending goal.
• Leadership under Merz: Chancellor Friedrich Merz is consolidating this transformation by actively leading NATO’s initiatives and deploying combat-ready troops in Lithuania. 

US Middle East Strategy - Disruption and Normalisation:

• Military and diplomatic shocks: Trump bombed Iranian nuclear sites while facilitating temporary ceasefires and exploring the “Cyrus Accords” to normalise Israel-Iran ties.
• Abraham Accords legacy: His earlier term saw Arab-Israel normalisation; and current strategies aim to deepen these changes, potentially involving Saudi Arabia and Iran.
• Regional implications: The weakening of Iran and shifting alliances are recalibrating the security dynamics of the Middle East.

Indo-Pacific Resonance - Anxiety Amid US Disengagement:

• Absence at NATO summit: No representatives from Japan, South Korea, Australia, or New Zealand were present—signalling drift in Asia-Europe security linkages.
• US commitment in doubt: Trump’s reluctance to label Russia as a threat and his non-affirmation of Article 5 of Washington Treaty (collective defence) has unsettled US allies in Asia.
• Need for strategic autonomy: US allies in Asia may pursue more independent and regional security arrangements.

Rethinking Eurasian Security - A Structural Transformation:

• Security needs political recalibration: More defence spending is not enough; countries must reimagine their regional partnerships.
• Signs of systemic change: From the Ukraine war to strained NATO cohesion and Iran’s internal turmoil, the geopolitical landscape of Eurasia is shifting dramatically.
• Emergence of new regional poles: A more assertive Germany, Middle East realignments, and Indo-Pacific autonomy represent a tripartite reordering of Eurasia.

India’s Strategic Positioning in a Reordered Eurasia:

• Multi-regional engagement: India straddles the Indo-Pacific, Middle East, and Europe, giving it a unique strategic advantage.
• Policy diversification: New Delhi is deepening ties with Europe, engaging with the Middle East across divides, stabilizing ties with China and strengthening relationships with ASEAN, Japan, Australia, and South Korea.
• Balancing act with Trump’s America: Even as India partners with the US, it is building the capacity to navigate an uncertain world order marked by power transitions.

Conclusion:

• The global order is witnessing a tectonic shift as Trump’s disruptive strategies force Eurasia into a structural recalibration.
• With Germany asserting leadership in Europe, the Middle East moving toward regional balancing, and the Indo-Pacific exploring strategic autonomy, the era of US-led security guarantees is being fundamentally questioned.
• For India, this moment offers both challenge and opportunity—requiring nimble diplomacy and robust strategic foresight.