Context

• The contemporary world order is undergoing severe disruptions at the intersection of economics, geopolitics, and technology.
• Much attention has focused on the role of the United States and the policies of President Donald Trump, but the more urgent task for India and the wider world is to interrogate the underlying motivations of these disruptions and craft a measured strategic response.
• The global polycrisis, a condition where crises in economics, politics, and technology reinforce one another, requires India to recalibrate its national strategy to defend its interests and to contribute to building a more equitable multipolar world order.

Trump’s Motivations and Economic Warfare

• Appealing to Domestic Discontent
  • Trump has positioned himself as the champion of a silent majority in the United States that feels betrayed by globalisation.
  • This constituency, extending beyond his core Make America Great Again base, perceives itself as the victim of capital accumulation, cheap labour, and the erosion of environmental safeguards.
  • Instead of restructuring global capitalism to redress these inequalities, Trump has turned to xenophobia, populist economic nationalism, and racially charged politics.
  • The result is a sustained attack on the liberal international order through sanctions, tariffs, weakened multilateral institutions, reduced foreign aid, and stricter immigration controls.
  • These measures, cloaked in the rhetoric of national interest, are in fact instruments of aggressive sovereign self-interest.
• Reinforcing U.S. Economic Power
  • Tariffs, though ultimately borne by American consumers and companies, serve as coercive tools to extract concessions from other nations.
  • While the United States still dominates global GDP with a 26% share, China’s rapid growth at 17% represents a strategic challenge.
  • America’s subsidies for its own industries, punitive tariffs on foreign goods, and efforts to preserve the dollar’s hegemony reflect a long history of protectionist practices dressed up as free-market policies.
  • India has suffered disproportionately from these measures, facing steep tariffs on its exports, even as the U.S. shields its own markets with extreme protectionism.
• Containing China and Reasserting Unipolarity
  • Although Trump’s style is unique, the bipartisan consensus in Washington supports checking China’s rise and restoring American industrial strength.
  • Tariffs against India, linked to U.S. manoeuvres on Russia and Ukraine, also reflect a broader strategy to counter multipolar aspirations.
  • These policies serve not only to pressure competitors but also to consolidate U.S. national security objectives in Asia, where China is viewed as the principal rival.

Implications for India

• U.S. Strategy and India’s Security Dilemma
  • The assumption that Washington views India as a democratic counterweight to China must be reassessed.
  • The U.S. has continued to engage Pakistan, hesitated over commitments to the Quad, and placed barriers on technological collaboration and manufacturing investment in India.
  • These moves complicate India’s security calculus, forcing it into concessions with China to avoid simultaneous confrontation with both Beijing and Islamabad.
• India’s Compliance Under U.S. Pressure
  • India’s response to American pressure has often been marked by compliance rather than resistance.
  • While China has leveraged its control over critical rare metals to shield itself from U.S. tariffs, India has yielded to demands on oil imports from Iran and Venezuela and even on agricultural duties.
  • This behaviour risks emboldening Washington while undermining India’s own strategic autonomy.
• Limits of Personalised Diplomacy
  • The Modi government’s foreign policy approach, marked by personalised diplomacy, diaspora mobilisation, and symbolic gestures, has not translated into tangible strategic gains.
  • Instead, India finds itself facing an entrenched China-Pakistan alliance, strained neighbourhood relations, punitive tariffs, and heightened racism against its diaspora in the U.S.

The Way Forward: Leveraging the Polycrisis for Strategic Gains

• Despite the challenges, the current global disruptions also present India with opportunities to reshape the world order.
• The weakening of neoliberal globalisation and the discrediting of unipolarity create space for India to champion multipolarity as a more equitable alternative.
• A New Economic Deal that prioritises fair distribution of resources, stronger multilateral institutions, and debt relief for developing nations would resonate across the Global South.
• However, to assume such leadership, India must address its own structural deficiencies.
• Manufacturing remains weak, unemployment high, private investment stagnant, and research underfunded.
• Without equitable economic growth and greater investor confidence, India cannot position itself as a reliable global partner.
• This demands bold reforms in industrial policy, scientific development, and public sector restructuring.

Conclusion

• The disruptions of the Trump era are not passing anomalies but symptoms of deeper global fractures.
• For India, the challenge lies in resisting coercive U.S. policies while avoiding entanglement in great-power rivalries.
• At the same time, India must seize the moment to advocate for multipolarity and economic fairness, both regionally and globally.
• Achieving this vision requires confronting structural weaknesses at home, pursuing policies of equitable growth, and forging unified strategies that transcend partisanship.