Context

• The trajectory of China’s geopolitical and military posture has undergone a significant transformation under President Xi Jinping, marking a sharp departure from the era of Deng Xiaoping and the more measured diplomacy of Hu Jintao.
• Contemporary China is increasingly drawing from its imperial past, nurturing a narrative of historical victimhood, and projecting an assertive vision for its future.
• This evolution has direct implications for its neighbours, particularly India, as both nations continue to navigate a complex relationship characterised by intermittent cooperation and recurring confrontation.

Historical Legacy and Modern Ambitions

• Under Xi Jinping’s leadership, China has increasingly invoked its historical legacy, especially that of the Qing Dynasty, to justify contemporary territorial claims.
• The border provocations in the Himalayas, from Depsang (2013) and Demchok (2016) to Doklam (2017) and Galwan (2020), reflect a broader strategic calculus aimed at reclaiming perceived historical frontiers.
• While China’s actions are framed as defensive or restorative, they reveal a more ambitious agenda: to reshape regional dynamics and secure a hegemonic position in Asia.
• These skirmishes underscore the caution with which India must approach bilateral relations.
• Despite recent diplomatic gestures and exchanges of warmth between the two countries’ leaders, these efforts should not be misinterpreted as a return to the relatively stable era of Hu Jintao.
• Rather, they appear to be temporary pauses in a broader pattern of assertiveness and recalibration.

Signs of De-escalation: Substance or Symbolism?

• By late 2024, signs of a thaw in India-China relations began to emerge. Official announcements before the BRICS Summit in Kazan suggested an agreement on border patrolling mechanisms.
• Although the specifics remained vague, the initiative was welcomed as a potential step toward reducing tensions along the Line of Actual Control (LAC).
• However, the existence of a continued stand-off and the lack of transparent implementation mechanisms cast doubt on the durability of this détente.
• Statements from both Chinese and Indian leaders presented a facade of optimism.
• China’s invocation of a ‘harmonious dance’ between the Dragon and the Elephant and Prime Minister Modi’s public endorsement of restored normalcy painted a picture of progress.
• Nonetheless, these symbolic affirmations fell short of addressing the underlying issues, particularly China’s military build-up and strategic posturing in the region.

India’s Challenges Dealing with China

• The Strategic Imbalance: Military and Technological Gaps
  • India faces a formidable challenge in matching China's accelerating defence modernisation.
  • China’s 7.2% increase in its defence budget in 2025, which significantly outpaces India’s own spending (under 2% of GDP), highlights this imbalance.
  • The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) continues to maintain a robust presence in contested regions like Ladakh, equipped with tanks, artillery, and missile systems.
  • Meanwhile, China is also reportedly expanding its nuclear arsenal, a development that cannot be overlooked despite the lack of precise figures.
• China’s Lead in AI and Technological Advancements
  • Equally concerning is China’s lead in the domains of Artificial Intelligence, cyber warfare, and quantum technology.
  • These advancements provide it with critical advantages in the emerging landscape of ‘new age’ warfare, potentially undermining India’s strategic autonomy and preparedness.
  • In contrast, India’s slower pace of digital military transformation could widen this technological divide and limit its ability to effectively respond in a future crisis.
• China’s Expanding Influence in India’s Neighbourhood
  • Beyond military considerations, China’s diplomatic manoeuvres in South Asia further complicate India’s strategic calculus.
  • The shift in Bangladesh’s foreign policy orientation, particularly after the decline of the pro-India Sheikh Hasina government, illustrates China’s growing influence in what has traditionally been considered India’s sphere of influence.
  • China’s outreach to Bangladesh, exemplified by high-level visits and deepening bilateral ties, introduces a new dimension of competition in the region.
• China’s Growing Influence in Africa
  • This diplomatic encroachment is not limited to South Asia.
  • China’s proactive engagement in Africa, particularly in securing nuclear energy resources, contrasts sharply with India’s relatively muted presence.
  • As the global race for energy independence intensifies, China’s early investments and strategic partnerships may yield long-term dividends that enhance its leverage in both economic and geopolitical terms.

The Way Forward

• Preparing for the Unexpected
  • Amidst this evolving landscape, India must prepare for scenarios that appear improbable but are within the realm of possibility.
  • The potential for sudden shifts in global alliances, such as a surprise rapprochement between the United States and China, could upend existing power equations.
  • India must, therefore, adopt a flexible and forward-looking strategy, one that balances immediate needs with long-term preparedness.
• Need for a Realpolitik Approach
  • While both India and China are ancient civilizations capable of resilience and reinvention, their contemporary relations are shaped by modern power politics rather than shared heritage.
  • The current environment, marked by a decline in pluralism and a weakening of the so-called ‘rules-based international order’, necessitates a realpolitik approach.
  • For India, this means strengthening its military capabilities, safeguarding its neighbourhood from external encroachment, and diversifying its strategic partnerships beyond traditional allies.

Conclusion

• India and China’s relationship is one of paradox, rooted in ancient ties yet shaped by modern rivalry.
• While diplomacy and dialogue remain essential, they must be backed by vigilance, capability, and strategic clarity.
• The metaphor of the Elephant and the Dragon dancing together may hold symbolic appeal, but for the dance to be sustained, both partners must respect boundaries, share rhythms, and prepare for sudden turns.
• Until then, cautious engagement, not blind optimism, should guide India’s China policy.