Why in the News?

Recently, Pope Francis died at the age of 88 at Domus Sanctae Marthae in Vatican City.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Papal Conclave (Background, Governing Rules, Political Divisions, Power Dynamics, Key Issues, etc.)

Introduction

• The Catholic Church has entered a historic moment with the passing of Pope Francis.
• The Church now stands in the sede vacante period, the interregnum until a new Pope is elected.
• At the heart of this transition is the Papal Conclave, an ancient, deeply spiritual, yet inherently political process.
• Governed by strict rules under the apostolic constitution Universi Dominici Gregis (UDG), the Conclave blends ritual, secrecy, diplomacy, and strategic negotiation to determine the next leader of the global Catholic community.

Governing Rules and Procedures of the Conclave

• The Conclave’s procedures are strictly dictated by UDG, emphasizing complete secrecy and isolation within Vatican City to minimize external influence.
  • Only cardinals under 80 years of age are eligible to vote.
  • Voting requires a two-thirds majority, necessitating broad consensus and preventing narrow factional control.
  • Despite being barred from voting, senior cardinals (over 80) still participate in pre-Conclave deliberations, potentially influencing the electors.
• Behind the locked doors of the Sistine Chapel, alliances are built, negotiations unfold, and influence is wielded through respected figures known as the 'great electors'.
• The secrecy ensures that decisions are made based on conscience, away from public or political pressure.

Political Divisions within the College of Cardinals

• The College of Cardinals is notably divided, largely reflecting debates over Pope Francis's reformist legacy and the Church’s future direction. Two broad camps emerge:
• Reformists/Progressives:
  • Support Pope Francis’s emphasis on pastoral theology over rigid doctrine.
  • Advocate for social justice, climate action, migration rights, and greater inclusion of women and LGBTQ+ Catholics.
• Conservatives/Traditionalists:
  • Stress liturgical tradition, doctrinal clarity, and a return to pre-Francis norms.
  • Seek to reaffirm established moral teachings and resist perceived doctrinal dilution.
• However, these divisions are nuanced. Many cardinals from the Global South, Africa, Asia, and Latin America, combine social conservatism (e.g., opposition to same-sex blessings like the Fiducia Supplicans) with a strong commitment to social justice and environmental advocacy, making their voting behaviour less predictable.

Geographical Shifts in Power Dynamics

• Pope Francis deliberately altered the traditional European dominance in the College of Cardinals:
  • Europeans now constitute only about 39.3% of the electors, down from over 50% in 2013.
  • Asia-Pacific represents about 17%, Latin America 15.6%, and Africa 13.3%.
• This diversification reflects the global nature of Catholicism and introduces new political complexities.
• Cardinals from the Global South, shaped by poverty, migration, and interreligious dynamics, will likely influence the focus of the Conclave toward broader global challenges rather than traditional European concerns.
• The shrinking European share and growing southern representation increase the possibility of a non-European Pope, and make cross-regional coalition-building essential to reach the two-thirds voting threshold.

Key Issues Likely to Shape the Conclave Deliberations

• Several pressing theological and social issues are expected to dominate discussions:
  • Synodality: Pope Francis’s project to promote a more consultative Church faces uncertain prospects, with some seeing it as renewal, others as a threat to hierarchical authority.
  • Handling of LGBTQ+ Issues: The backlash to Fiducia Supplicans (allowing blessings for same-sex couples) highlights tensions between pastoral outreach and doctrinal purity.
  • Role of Women: Calls for greater inclusion, including possibilities like women deacons, are gaining momentum.
  • Clerical Celibacy and Bioethics: Sensitive discussions on evolving traditional stances are expected.
  • Sexual Abuse Crisis: Despite reforms like Vos Estis Lux Mundi, concerns about enforcement and accountability persist, making transparency and survivor support key litmus tests for candidates.
  • Geopolitical and Internal Reforms: The next Pope must address international conflicts (e.g., Ukraine, Gaza), navigate relations with powers like China (especially regarding the controversial Vatican-China deal), and continue internal financial reforms after scandals like the London property case.

The Unpredictability of the Outcome

• Unlike previous Conclaves where front-runners were clear, the 2025 Conclave is marked by unpredictability:
  • The diverse composition of cardinals, many unfamiliar with each other, adds complexity.
  • The secrecy of the proceedings ensures that real alliances and shifts remain invisible until the white smoke announces the decision.
  • The traditional Vatican saying, "He who enters the Conclave as Pope, leaves it as a cardinal," reflects the uncertainty, often, unexpected candidates emerge as compromise choices acceptable to various factions.
• The final choice will be a product of political manoeuvring, individual discernment, and, for believers, divine guidance within the sacred walls of the Sistine Chapel.