Context:

• The visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to India, along with the entire College of Commissioners (the European Cabinet), marks a significant moment in the evolving India-EU relationship.
• This visit gains additional importance against the backdrop of Donald Trump’s return to the White House, which has introduced fresh uncertainties in global geopolitics.

Geopolitical Context - The Trump Factor

• Trump’s policies are reshaping U.S. relations with Russia, China, and Europe.
• His approach prioritizes bilateral deals over multilateral commitments.
• Trump’s stance on Ukraine and NATO has left European nations in a vulnerable position. For example, Trump’s withdrawal of support for Ukraine has shocked Europe.
• His administration demands that European nations take full responsibility for their security.
• Washington’s ideological shift, including support for right-wing European parties (for example, Germany’s Alternative for Germany [AfD]), is reshaping internal EU politics.

India’s Strategic Calculations:

• India has historically managed global power shifts by engaging with multiple partners.
• For example, India’s strategy (until now) for managing US policy volatility has involved maintaining its ties with Russia and engaging in Moscow-led coalitions such as BRICS.
• This means, India traditionally relied on balancing ties with Russia and the US.
• With Russia seeking direct negotiations with the U.S., India must broaden its strategic partnerships and recalibrate its strategy amid shifting alliances.
• Europe emerges as a key player in India’s evolving foreign policy framework.

India-EU Relations:

• A historical perspective:
  • A strategic partnership was declared in 2004 but lost momentum by the early 2010s.
  • Trade negotiations had stalled, and Brussels prioritized commercial ties with China.
  • India revived engagement in 2016, leading to increased cooperation post-pandemic.
• Key initiatives include:
  • India-EU Trade and Technology Council
  • India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC)
  • Strengthened Indo-Pacific engagement
• Economic realities and challenges:
  • India’s economic engagement with the EU remains underdeveloped despite clear synergies.
  • India’s trade deficit with China continues to widen, nearing $100 billion annually.
  • The global economic order, once assumed to be stable/irreversible, is being dismantled by Trump’s policies.
  • India must push for economic reforms and reduce dependence on Chinese imports.

Key Takeaways from Von der Leyen’s Visit:

• The visit provides Delhi with the perfect opportunity to revitalise its engagement with the EU - the world’s third-largest economy after the US and China.
• Strategic convergence between India and Europe can mitigate risks from U.S. unpredictability.
• A Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and increased bilateral trade remain priority areas.
• As the EU is a vital source of science, technology, advanced industry, capital, and a vast consumer market, strengthening cooperation in these areas is essential for India’s economic resilience.

Way Ahead Towards Strengthening India-EU Ties:

• Despite their traditional emphasis on “strategic autonomy,” both Brussels and Delhi have long relied on their partnerships with the US as the anchor of their global strategies.
• While neither can afford to disengage from the US, both India and Europe must now do more to strengthen their ties in response to Trump’s unpredictable policies.
• As India recognised Europe’s strategic value in a multipolar world, the EU also moved to “de-risk” its economic ties with China and increase its engagement in the Indo-Pacific region. 

Conclusion:

• The changing global order demands a recalibrated Indian foreign policy.
• With Europe actively seeking to reduce economic dependence on China and India looking to diversify strategic partnerships, Ursula von der Leyen’s visit presents a timely opportunity to solidify India-EU ties.
• Strengthening this partnership will enhance India’s role in an increasingly multipolar world while ensuring economic and strategic stability.