What’s in Today’s Article?

• Introduction (Context of the Article)
• Declining Fertility in India (Reasons, Implications, Way Forward, etc.)

Introduction:

• A global demographic analysis conducted by the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 highlights a significant decline in fertility levels worldwide, including in India.
• The report reveals a dramatic drop in India's Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 6.18 in the 1950s to 1.9 in 2021, below the replacement level of 2.1.
• Projections suggest this rate could fall to 1.04 by 2100, signalling major socio-economic implications.

Reasons for Declining Fertility in India:

• Increased Female Literacy and Workforce Participation:
  • Women’s empowerment and higher educational attainment have contributed significantly to the decline in fertility rates.
• Changing Societal Attitudes:
  • Late marriages or choosing not to marry are becoming more common as women prioritize careers and financial independence over traditional roles.
• Infertility and Abortions:
  • Rising rates of infertility in men and women and increased abortion rates are also contributing factors.
• Migration:
  • Many young individuals move abroad for higher education and employment, often settling there and raising families outside India.
• Urbanization and Modern Aspirations:
  • With urbanization, families are opting for fewer children to maintain economic and social aspirations.

Regional Implications:

• Southern States
  • Kerala and other southern states witnessed demographic transitions earlier than the rest of India, achieving replacement-level fertility in the late 20th century.
  • Challenges include:
    • Ageing Population: The elderly population is rapidly increasing, surpassing the younger demographic.
    • Shrinking Workforce: Youth migration for better prospects has left gaps in the local labor market.
    • Healthcare Demands: There is an increased burden on healthcare systems and social security to support the elderly.

• Kerala’s Specific Case:
• Labour Market: High labor wages and quality of life attract migrant workers from other states, making up about one-sixth of the population by 2030.
• Health Challenges: Delayed motherhood leads to older mothers and higher pregnancy-related morbidities.

Global Context:

• Countries like South Korea showcase the challenges of reversing fertility declines.
• Despite heavy investments in pro-natalist policies, South Korea's fertility rate fell from 0.78 in 2022 to 0.73 in 2023, underscoring the difficulty of reversing demographic trends once they set in.

Future Implications for India:

• Economic Impacts:
  • A shrinking workforce may hinder economic growth.
  • Increased healthcare costs due to the ageing population.
• Social Challenges:
  • Rising dependency ratios could strain families and welfare systems.
  • Reduced innovation and productivity due to fewer young workers.

Way Forward:

• Socio-Economic Policies:
  • Policies focusing on economic growth, job creation, and support for the youth can help mitigate the effects of declining fertility rates.
• Leveraging the Elderly Population:
  • Tap into the potential of senior citizens through skill development and involvement in economic activities.
• Support for Families:
  • Provide incentives for young couples to have children, such as tax benefits, childcare support, and housing subsidies.

Conclusion:

• India's declining fertility rates signal a demographic shift with long-term socio-economic implications.
• Proactive policies that address economic, healthcare, and social challenges are crucial to adapting to this transformation.
• Learning from global experiences and focusing on sustainable development will ensure that India navigates these challenges effectively.