About Block-Level Monsoon Forecasting System:
- It is India’s first artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled monsoon advance forecasting model launched by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
- It was developed in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).
- It aims to deliver hyperlocal, impact-based, and AI-driven weather services across the country.
- It combines existing numerical weather prediction models with AI to generate probabilistic forecasts of monsoon progression every Wednesday up to four weeks in advance, with a model error margin of around four days.
- The system will base its assessment on the onset of a continuous five-day rainfall spell and the absence of prolonged dry spells over the subsequent 30 days.
- It will disseminate alerts through mobile applications, SMS, and local agricultural extension networks.
- The forecasting system currently covers 3,196 blocks across 15 states and one Union Territory, largely concentrated in rainfed regions where monsoon onset plays a critical role in agriculture and water management.
- The coverage will gradually be expanded to other parts of the country.
