India’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to grow by 9.2% in the current financial year following last fiscal’s 7.3% contraction, the National Statistical Office (NSO) said in its first advance estimates of economic output released, amid concerns over the likely impact of a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
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The NSO, however, made clear that these were “early projections” that did not factor in actual performance of various indicators as well as measures that may be taken to contain the spread of the pandemic.
GDP at constant prices (2011-12) in the year 2021-22 is estimated at ₹147.54 lakh crore, as against the provisional estimate of GDP for the year 2020-21 of ₹135.13 lakh crore, adding that growth in real GDP is pegged at 9.2%.
Real GVA at Basic Prices is estimated at ₹135.22 lakh crore in 2021-22, as against ₹124.53 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth of 8.6%.
The implicit GDP growth of 5.6% for H2 FY2022 built in by the NSO may not fully factor in the admittedly evolving impact of Omicron,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA Ltd.
Our sense is that after a 6.0-6.5% rise in Q3 FY2022, the GDP expansion is set to slip below 5% in the ongoing quarter.
The NSO’s GVA estimates show the mining sector outpacing others with growth of 14.3% following last year’s 8.5% contraction, followed by manufacturing which is seen expanding by 12.5% after shrinking 7.2% in the previous 12-month period.
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