Oct. 18, 2020

Former Chief Economist of the World Bank Kaushik Basu has said that the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) latest projection of Bangladesh’s real per capita GDP surpassing India’s real per capita GDP, after India had a lead of 25 per cent five years ago, is shocking, and calls for “bold fiscal/monetary policy”.


  • In its latest World Economic Outlook released this week, the IMF has projected the Indian economy to contract 10.3 per cent in 2020-21, a deeper hit than the June estimate of 4.5 per cent contraction in the wake of the economic slump due to Covid-19 pandemic.

  • India’s per capita GDP, in nominal US dollar terms, is projected to be $1,876.53 in 2020, lower than $1,887.97 projected for Bangladesh. On average, India’s per capita GDP has been 24 per cent higher than Bangladesh’s during the last five years, IMF data show.

  • After a blip however, India’s per capita GDP is expected to overtake Bangladesh’s per capita GDP in 2021, with the IMF projecting it to be $2,030.62 as against $1,989.85 of the latter.

  • However, the trend is not expected to sustain for long as India’s per capita GDP is then again expected to slip below Bangladesh’s per capita GDP in 2024 to $2,544.26 as against $2,544.32.

  • In 2025, India’s per capita GDP is projected to be $2,729.24, again lower than Bangladesh’s projected per capita GDP of $2,756.10, the IMF said.