SHAPES OF ECONOMIC RECOVERY

June 9, 2020

Given the weakness of the economy going into the COVID crisis as well as the less than adequate fiscal stimulus, India is likely to end up with an elongated U-shape recovery, although some experts have predicted other shapes of recovery.

About:

  • Z-shaped recovery: The economy quickly rises after a crash. It more than makes up for lost ground before settling back to the normal trend-line, thus forming a Z-shaped chart.

  • V-shaped recovery: The economy quickly recoups lost ground and gets back to the normal growth trend-line.

  • U-shaped recovery: The economy, after falling, struggles and muddles around a low growth rate for some time, before rising gradually to usual levels.

  • W-shaped recovery: The growth falls and rises, but falls again before recovering yet again, thus forming a W-like chart, depicting a double-dip.

  • L-shaped recovery: The growth after falling, stagnates at low levels and does not recover for a long, long time.

  • J-shaped recovery: The growth rises sharply from the lows much higher than the trend-line and stays there.

  • Swoosh shaped recovery: This is similar to the Nike logo — in between the V-shape and the U-shape. Here, after falling, growth starts recovering quickly but then, slowed down by obstacles, moves gradually back to the trend-line.

  • Inverted square root shaped recovery: In this scenario, while there could a rebound from the bottom, the growth slows and settles a step down. 

Source : The Hindu

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