About Trade and Development Report (TDR):
- First launched in 1981, it is issued every year by the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
- The report analyses current economic trends and major policy issues of international concern and makes suggestions for addressing these issues at various levels.
- TDR 2026 Highlights:
- Global trade is projected to grow by 4% in 2026, slower than the previous year’s 4%, but well above what was anticipated when the conflict in the Middle East began.
- Global trade reached a record $35 trillion in 2025.
- The report indicates higher trade values resulting from energy price increases and export controls.
- While trade between China and the US has fallen by more than 20% since 2024, East Asia has expanded trade with both China and North America.
- Developing economies, particularly India, are expected to drive notable growth despite overall global economic slowdowns.
- Global economic growth will likely slow to 2.6% in 2026, down from 2.9% last year, but developing economies are projected to grow 4% this year, down from 4.7% in 2025.
- Asia is projected to contribute 59% of global growth in 2026.
- The report showed that governments increasingly use industrial, trade, financial, and technology policies to pursue economic and national security objectives.
- Artificial intelligence products, comprising advanced computing equipment deployed primarily in new data centres, have become the main driver of merchandise trade; 82% of value added accrues to four supplier segments in this category.
- From 2020 to 2025, strategic sectors grew from 16% to 44% of global greenfield investment.
- Among these strategic sectors, artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure and related technologies attracted the largest share of 12.4% of the $845.7 billion of overall global greenfield investment that took place within this period.
- AI infrastructure was followed by the semiconductor value chain (8.1%) and energy transition technologies and services (7.8%).
- Strategic investment is concentrated in Europe (28.4%) and North America (28%). Even among developing economies, capital is primarily funnelled into developing Asia (26.5%) with China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore as leading jurisdictions for new investments.
- India Specific Findings:
- India accounted for 7% of global greenfield investments during 2020 to 2025, followed by Malaysia (4%), Indonesia (3.8%), and China (2.8%).
- India ranks high in terms of the number of industrial policies it has implemented over the last two decades or so.
- India is the fastest-growing major economy, with GDP projected to expand by 7.3% in 2026 and 8% in 2027 due to robust domestic demand, increasing manufacturing capacity, and public infrastructure programmes.
- It added that these factors are together sustaining growth despite India’s heavy reliance on oil imports.
- India continues to post dynamic growth in household consumption, estimated at 9% this year and 5.6% next.
