Approach:

Introduction: Give the context of the water war and Chinese activities over rivers

Body: Mention India’s concerns, steps taken by India till now, and potential steps which could be further taken.

Conclusion: Suggest a way forward to ensure cooperation in this regard.

Answer:

High population growth, climate change, and increased water demand could all lead to conflict over access to water resources in the future. This combined with unilateral efforts being taken up by upper riparian countries such as China with its control over the Tibetan plateau could severely affect lower riparian countries like India.

The Brahmaputra, for India, accounts for nearly 30 per cent of freshwater resources and 40 per cent of total hydropower potential. Whereas almost 50 per cent of the basin of the Brahmaputra is in Chinese territory.

India’s concerns about China’s activities over Bramhaputra:

• Construction of dams for hydroelectric power generation even though only of the run of the river type such as Xangmu, and Xiechu dams by China could increase siltation levels in the basin impacting economic activity and causing floods.
• The proposed diversion of waters at the great bend by building a dam in Medong county could lead to dropping in water levels entering India impacting agriculture and fishing, particularly in the lean season when the share of water coming from Tibet becomes quite significant.
• The lack of transparency in the Chinese infrastructure creation is creating concerns for India over the Chinese intentions.
• Concerns of the potential use of Brahmaputra as political leverage in border disputes for example sharing of hydrological data were stopped during doklam standoff by the Chinese.
• National security implications in case of sudden diversion of water affecting large sections of people as the trust of people might also be impacted.
• Environmental impacts such as increased pollution in river Siang ( Brahmaputra’s main artery) as it turned grey while entering India. Conflict and competitive infrastructure creation could affect biodiversity, impact monsoonal patterns, cause climate change, etc.
• Increased disaster vulnerability due to changes in river flow. Seismological impact due to construction in the tectonically active region by explosions for infrastructure building with China planning to use small nuclear explosions creating concerns for radioactive fallout over agriculture and water quality.

Steps were taken by India to uphold our interests:

• Fast-tracking dam building in Arunachal Pradesh such as initiating the biggest hydroelectric project of 11,000-megawatt power in upper subansiri. These projects apart from generating electricity are expected to mitigate water scarcity in case of diversion. The doctrine of prior appropriation to claim first control is being practised. The speed of infrastructure creation is also being ramped up.
• Banking of a responsible upper riparian country image by India for example being part of the Indus Waters Treaty.

Potential steps which could be further taken in this regard:

• Utilizing the 1997 UN Convention on the Law of the Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourse provides a good opening for mutual dialogue for establishing a joint commission, regular info exchange, etc. India should push for such institutionalization at multiple diplomatic forums.
• Dedicated efforts internationally for example by utilizing the BIMSTEC forum for consensus against Chinese activities as India is not the only country impacted by Chinese water unilateralism.

We should ensure that our competition and conflict with the Chinese do not impact the flow of transboundary rivers. By a combination of the use of hard and soft powers, we should ensure Chinese should come to the table of cooperation in areas like climate change to ensure a better future for populations on both sides.