Why in news?

June 7, 2026 marked 100 days of the US-Israel war on Iran — a conflict triggered by the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening strikes.

The war has since spread across multiple fronts, disrupted global energy markets, and directly impacted India through rising oil prices and threats to its Gulf diaspora. Diplomacy remains deadlocked, with no ceasefire in sight.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• How It Started?
• Key players in the Conflict
• Who Is Winning?
• The Strait of Hormuz: The Energy Flashpoint
• Lebanon: The Second Front
• Diplomacy: Completely Stalled
• India's Concern: Three Direct Threats

How It Started?

• The US and Israel launched strikes targeting Iran's military and nuclear-linked infrastructure, aiming to prevent Tehran from developing nuclear weapons.
• The killing of Khamenei — Iran's highest political and religious authority — dramatically escalated the conflict.
• Iran retaliated through both direct strikes and regional proxies, drawing Lebanon, the Gulf states, and global energy markets into the crisis.
• Recently, the US House of Representatives voted 215–208 to restrict President Trump's authority to continue the war — a largely symbolic move, as the Senate must also pass it.

Key players in the Conflict

• The standoff involves multiple state and non-state actors:
  • The United States is leading military strikes and diplomatic pressure.
  • Israel is engaged in direct confrontation with Iran-linked forces.
  • Iran, responding through direct actions and regional proxies.
  • Hezbollah in Lebanon is sustaining cross-border attacks on Israel.
  • Gulf countries are impacted by spillover effects despite not being direct participants.
    • Countries across the Gulf have been affected by the conflict, even though they are not directly involved in the fighting.
    • Missile and drone attacks have targeted infrastructure in parts of the region, raising security concerns.
    • Air travel has been disrupted, with flights cancelled or rerouted due to safety risks.

Who Is Winning?

• Nobody, clearly. The conflict has become a war of endurance rather than decisive military gains. The US and Israel have struck Iranian military and nuclear facilities.
• But Iran has sustained its resistance through direct action and proxy forces — chiefly Hezbollah in Lebanon — keeping multiple fronts active. Both sides claim limited success while facing ongoing risks.
• Trump has described the war as a "great success" and insists Iran is "in no position" to develop nuclear weapons. But stalled diplomacy tells a different story.

The Strait of Hormuz: The Energy Flashpoint

• The Strait of Hormuz — a narrow waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets — has become the most sensitive pressure point of the conflict.
• Roughly one-fifth of the world's crude oil passes through it daily.
• Iran has asserted shared control of the strait with Oman. Military activity has disrupted shipping, created a partial blockade, and kept oil prices volatile.
• Prices crossed $100 per barrel at peak, though they dipped when ceasefire signals emerged.

Lebanon: The Second Front

• Lebanon has become a major secondary front. Hezbollah — Iran's closest regional ally — has sustained cross-border attacks on Israel, opening a parallel conflict.
• Israel has continued striking southern Lebanon despite a Washington-brokered ceasefire agreement.
• Hezbollah has rejected conditional truce proposals, demanding full Israeli withdrawal.
• Iran has linked any peace deal with the US to a ceasefire in Lebanon, making the diplomatic picture even more complex.

Diplomacy: Completely Stalled

• A Pakistan-brokered ceasefire on April 7 is no longer holding. Iran has cut contact with US mediators.
• Earlier discussions on extending the ceasefire and reviving nuclear talks have collapsed after Washington sought changes to proposed terms.
• Iran's position: "The ball is in Trump's court." Tehran demands the release of frozen assets and a broader regional ceasefire — particularly in Lebanon — before any talks can resume.
• Trump shows little urgency, suggesting the talks have lost momentum.

India's Concern: Three Direct Threats

• India has maintained strategic neutrality but is directly affected across three dimensions.
• Oil imports: 65–70% of India's crude oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Sustained disruption raises fuel import costs, adding to inflation and current account pressure.
• Gulf diaspora: 9–10 million Indians live in Gulf countries — the largest Indian diaspora concentration in the world. Their remittances account for roughly 40% of India's total remittance inflows. An Indian national was killed in an Iranian drone strike on Kuwait International Airport on June 3.
• Trade routes: Shipping disruptions, flight cancellations, and supply chain uncertainty affect India's trade with the Gulf and beyond.