Context:

• West Asia is undergoing a once-in-a-generation shift in its security architecture and political alignments.
• Amid this churn, India's decade-long gains in the region are fading, and it is unclear whether New Delhi has a coherent strategy to respond.
• Against this backdrop, this article highlights the changing security architecture of West Asia and the erosion of India’s decade-long gains in the region.
• It examines Pakistan’s rising diplomatic role, the Saudi-Türkiye-Pakistan defence pact, risks to India’s strategic interests, and the need for an active, independent regional strategy.

India's Fading Footprint in West Asia

• India had built significant goodwill in the region over the past decade:
  • In 2016, Saudi Arabia conferred its highest civilian honour on India's Prime Minister.
  • In 2021, the I2U2 grouping bound India, Israel, the US, and the UAE in a shared framework.
  • In 2024, Iran leased the Chabahar port to India, boosting its connectivity ambitions.
• These achievements now belong to the past, as regional dynamics have shifted sharply against India's favour.

The Regional Conflict and Pakistan's Rising Role

• Over the last four months, the US-Israel war with Iran has escalated into a wider regional conflict.
• Iran has struck GCC countries, Saudi Arabia has hit Iraqi militias, Houthis have attacked Saudi ships, and Israel has carried out strikes across multiple states.
• Gulf countries are now questioning the reliability of the US security umbrella, with the UAE favouring engagement and Saudi Arabia leaning towards deterrence.
• Within this uncertainty, Pakistan has gained diplomatic standing as a mediator in the US-Iran conflict, stepping in where Türkiye, Qatar, and Egypt could not succeed.
• This has translated into a new collective defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Türkiye, and Pakistan, signed in Mecca.

Why This Pact Matters for India?

• The pact is aimed less at Iran and more at deterring Israel, since all three signatories see themselves as potential future targets.
• It pools Saudi capital, Pakistani military strength, and Turkish technology.
• A future Israel-Pakistan conflict could draw India in, given its close ties with Israel.
• Greater Turkish backing for Pakistan in any future India-Pakistan conflict cannot be ruled out.

The Strategic Choices Before India

• India's current approach rests on confidence in Israel's eventual victory, given its US backing.
• However, American domestic politics are shifting, with both the political right and left increasingly questioning unconditional support for Israel — raising doubts about Israel's ability to prevail on its own.
• India's UAE relationship also faces strain from the UAE's growing rift with Saudi Arabia and its positions on UN-unrecognised governments in conflicts such as Sudan.
• Three broad paths lie before India:
  • Alliance-building with Israel and the UAE — but this risks damaging ties with Iran and Saudi Arabia.
  • Continued inaction — but this leaves Indian mariners exposed to attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab-el-Mandeb.
  • An active, independent regional strategy — positioning India as a trust-builder rather than a party to any bloc.

The Third Way: An Active Regional Strategy

• The article proposes a proactive Indian role, including:
  • Re-engaging Saudi Arabia, with whom India has no major disagreements.
  • Rebuilding trust between Arab states and Iran, beginning with the UAE-Iran relationship.
  • Supporting Jordan's security needs through defensive technology at a time of strained US resources.
  • Contributing to future UN peacekeeping efforts in Lebanon, especially as UNIFIL's mandate faces an uncertain future.
  • Coordinating with Egypt to protect India-bound shipping through the Suez Canal and Bab-el-Mandeb, if India cannot join the Saudi-led Red Sea maritime force.
  • Exploring a military presence in the Red Sea region, such as in Somaliland or Socotra.
  • Expanding military training exchanges and joint exercises across the region.
  • Appointing a Special Envoy for West Asia to coordinate India's interests beyond the Israel-Palestine peace process alone.

Conclusion

• India's West Asia policy stands at a crossroads: drift risks strategic irrelevance, while premature alliances risk alienating old partners.
• A proactive, trust-building approach — engaging all sides — offers India the surest path to restoring its regional influence and safeguarding vital maritime and economic interests.