Context:

• Over 100 days have passed since Tarique Rahman's BNP government assumed power in Bangladesh.
• Despite initial optimism, India-Bangladesh relations remain strained — much as they were under the preceding interim government led by Muhammad Yunus.
• This article highlights the growing trust deficit in India-Bangladesh relations despite the formation of a new government in Bangladesh and multiple diplomatic outreach efforts by India.
• It examines the unresolved issues driving bilateral tensions, including trade restrictions, visa policies, water-sharing concerns, immigration rhetoric, and the looming renewal of the Ganga Water Treaty, while underscoring the need for pragmatic engagement to safeguard regional stability.

India's Outreach: Gestures Without Substance

• India made two diplomatic gestures even before Rahman formally took charge:
  • EAM S. Jaishankar visited Dhaka in December 2025, to condole the death of Rahman's mother and former PM Khaleda Zia.
  • Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri delivered PM Modi's invitation letter, and Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla attended Rahman's swearing-in ceremony on February 17.
• However, BNP insiders consider these gestures insufficient. They expected India to reverse concrete punitive measures taken during the Yunus-led interim period.

Pending Grievances: What Dhaka Wants?

• Bangladesh's key expectations from India remain unmet:
  • Transhipment revival — resumption of goods transit from Bangladesh through India
  • Visa restoration — full reinstatement of business and medical visas
  • Market access — removal of restrictive trade barriers on Bangladeshi goods
  • Ganga Water Treaty — renewal of the 1996 treaty due to expire on December 31, 2026
• Dhaka argues that without these actions, India has given Rahman no political capital to spend while managing anti-India domestic forces, including the Jamaat-e-Islami and student groups.

The Hasina Factor and the Immigration Rhetoric

• BNP's veteran leadership made a significant concession by publicly stating that Sheikh Hasina's continued presence in India would not be a dealbreaker for normalising ties — a departure from the hard position of the Yunus government.
• India did not reciprocate. Instead, after the recent elections in West Bengal and Assam, New Delhi intensified its rhetoric around illegal immigration from Bangladesh in official communications.
• Bangladeshi diplomats expected this language to be toned down after the elections. The Ministry of External Affairs' continued stridence has generated what officials in Dhaka's secretariat describe as "a sense of betrayal."

Rahman's China Option

• Sensing a stall in normalisation, Rahman is reportedly in the final stages of planning visits to Malaysia and China in late June 2026 — a signal that Dhaka may seek to diversify its partnerships further if India does not engage meaningfully.
• However, the China pivot has its limits. Bangladesh's ties with China, the US, and others have grown since August 2024 — but these cannot substitute for India on one critical issue: river water.

The Ganga Treaty: A Ticking Clock

• The 1996 Ganga Water Treaty — a 30-year agreement — must be renewed before December 31, 2026.
• The stakes are high:
  • River experts warned that a delay would jeopardise the Ganges-Kobadak irrigation project, affecting large parts of western and central Bangladesh.
  • Unpredictable water supply will disrupt upcoming sowing seasons and hurt an economy already battered by an energy crisis caused by the US-Israel war on Iran.

Bangladesh's Domestic Vulnerabilities

• The Rahman government faces compounding internal pressures:
  • A severe measles outbreak has killed at least 600 infants, with the government criticised for poor crisis management.
  • Rising incidents of sexual violence reflect a law and order breakdown that has persisted since the August 2024 protests.
  • A banned but mobilising Awami League under Sheikh Hasina's banner stands to gain if Rahman fails to deliver on the Ganga treaty before the year-end deadline.

The Case for Pragmatism

• Both capitals need to act on material realities, not political optics.
• If Bangladesh spirals into instability — economic, hydrological, or political — it would directly hurt India's northeastern connectivity, border security, and regional influence. Instability in Bangladesh is emphatically not in India's interest.

Conclusion

• India and Bangladesh are caught in a cycle of unmet expectations — India offers gestures, Dhaka wants action; Dhaka softens on Hasina, India escalates immigration rhetoric.
• With the Ganga treaty deadline looming, pragmatism must replace posturing before bilateral inertia becomes irreversible damage.