Context

• The global energy and technological transition is transforming the geopolitics of natural resources.
• Critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, copper and rare earth elements are essential for electric vehicles, batteries, renewable energy, semiconductors, defence and advanced manufacturing.
• As decarbonisation and digitalisation accelerate, mineral security is acquiring strategic importance comparable to oil.
• For India, securing these resources is crucial for energy security, technological sovereignty and national security.

The Geopolitics of Critical Minerals

• Critical-mineral supply chains are highly concentrated. The top three refining countries accounted for 86% of refining capacity for major critical minerals in 2024, up from around 82% in 2020.
• China dominates the refining of most strategic minerals, while Indonesia is a major supplier of nickel.
• This concentration creates geopolitical vulnerabilities. China’s rare-earth export controls in 2025 raised concerns across automotive, defence, aerospace, AI, semiconductors and clean energy.
• Consequently, the European Union and the United States are pursuing supply-chain diversification through domestic production, processing, recycling and international partnerships.

Rising Demand and Supply Vulnerabilities

• The clean-energy transition will substantially increase mineral demand.
• The existing copper project pipeline could result in a 30% supply shortfall by 2035, while rising lithium demand may push the market into deficit during the 2030s.
• Rare-earth demand is also expected to grow rapidly with wind power, electronics and advanced magnets.
• India faces particular pressure because its net-zero ambitions and manufacturing expansion are mineral-intensive.
• Under a net-zero pathway, cumulative demand for critical energy-transition minerals could reach around 169 million tonnes by 2070, significantly exceeding demand under current policies.

India’s Reserve-to-Refining Gap

• India possesses substantial resources of cobalt, copper, graphite and nickel, besides monazite deposits containing rare-earth oxides.
• Recycling could eventually meet a significant share of copper and graphite demand.
• However, geological reserves do not automatically ensure supply security.
• India remains import-dependent for lithium, cobalt and nickel, while China's dominance in graphite and rare-earth processing creates additional risks.
• The critical weakness is the midstream processing and refining capacity.
• China accounts for more than 90% of rare-earth and graphite processing, nearly 75% of cobalt processing and around 70% of lithium-chemical production.
• India must therefore move beyond bulk-mineral extraction towards high-purity processing and value-added manufacturing.

Structural Constraints

• India's progress is constrained by limited exploration, inadequate geological data, lengthy regulatory clearances and restricted private participation.
• Remote-region projects also face high infrastructure and logistical costs.
• Processing is an even greater bottleneck. India lacks adequate facilities for certain high-purity inputs, while copper and graphite face technological, purification and scale constraints.
• Recycling cannot immediately replace primary supply because collection networks, feedstock and technologies remain limited.

India’s Policy Response

• Since 2023, India has increasingly treated critical minerals as a strategic priority.
• The identification of 30 critical minerals and launch of the National Critical Mineral Mission represent an important policy shift.
• The mission targets 1,200 exploration projects by ,2030-31, production of at least 15 critical minerals and overseas acquisition of 50 mining assets.
• Khanij Bidesh India Limited (KABIL) has secured 15703 hectares in Argentina’s Catamarca province for lithium exploration.
• Proposed rare-earth corridors across Odisha, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu can strengthen domestic processing.
• International cooperation is also important. The India-U.S. critical minerals and rare-earths framework provides opportunities for supply diversification, technology cooperation and strategic partnerships.

The Way Forward: From Mission to Execution

• The immediate priority is effective implementation. Processing and refining must become national industrial priorities through targeted incentives, infrastructure and technological partnerships.
• Better geological information, predictable approvals and risk-sharing mechanisms can attract private investment.
• India should develop strategic mineral stockpiles, strengthen industry-linked R&D, expand recycling and diversify overseas mineral assets through trusted partners.
• Mineral-specific risk assessments should determine where domestic production, diversified imports, strategic reserves or recycling are most appropriate.
• A coordinated institutional framework should establish measurable milestones across exploration, mining, refining, recycling and overseas acquisition.
• This would integrate mineral security with India's broader industrial and strategic objectives.

Conclusion

• Critical minerals are strategic foundations of the clean-energy economy, digital transformation and national security.
• India's geological potential provides a strong base, but reserves alone cannot ensure resilience.
• The priority must be to build capabilities across the entire value chain.
• India must move from resource potential to processing capability, import dependence to diversified supply, and fragmented initiatives to coordinated execution.
• Sustained investment in exploration, refining, recycling, R&D, strategic reserves and international partnerships can reduce vulnerability and strengthen India's position in the emerging global mineral order.